Justin Gibbs Weather

Pool Party Anyone

2011-01-04T01:03:00.001-06:00

A not too terribly rare La Nina snow blanketed the western Las Vegas Valley this morning. We had between two and three inches depending on where you measure in our neighborhood. We are at about 3,000 ft elevation so it isn't too unheard of to get accumulating snow, but it sure is a fun sight seeing palm trees and swimming pools coated with the white stuff!

Southwestern Anomaly

2010-10-07T02:11:00.003-05:00

Been away for awhile but wanted to bring to the attention of those that might still be following me, a particularly significant tornado outbreak over portions of northern Arizona today. It missed most of the Las Vegas Area, but the Flagstaff area and a lot of northern and central Arizona got some very wild weather. NWS Flagstaff issued 29 tornado warnings, which is incredible, storm surveys are underway, but I'd guess the number of final tornadoes is going to be quite high (four already). Below is the 300mb chart showing the elongating cut off upper low that spun up a bit of a negatively tilted upper shortwave trough which set up an extremely divergent airmass over the area which contributed to lift and to increasing low level winds substantially, as indicated by the sounding below. Take a close look at the lowest level wind, which was aided by topography in the region. 0-1km Storm Relative Helicity Values are well above the threshold for rotating updrafts/supercells, as evidenced by what was happening in the area. There will be lots to learn about this event and I'd imagine some pretty extensive papers will be in the offing due to some of the peculiarties of the synoptic and mesoscale environment.

For those that are following me and haven't heard from me in a while, everything is great in Las Vegas. We are adjusting well and seeing the sights around Vegas and especially the surrounding area. My job is also going very very well and has been a lot of fun and a great development experience so far!

A New Adventure

2010-05-16T13:04:00.002-05:00

For those of you that do not yet know, I have accepted a position in Las Vegas, NV with the National Weather Service Forecast Office there. It is a very exciting time for me and Cindy both and we will try to share at least part of the journey westward in the next few weeks here. My tenure with TEMA will be winding up shortly, but has definitely been a rewarding and educational experience. The things that I have learned in the past 15 days alone have been absolutely invaluable. At some point I may share a few of the highlights of that experience here, but I want to take time to determine what would be appropriate to share with the world wide web.

In the meantime I'm examining the weather of Death Valley, the southern Great Basin, northwestern Arizona and parts of southeast California. :) As wet as we have been in Nashville lately it will be a welcome change (at least until monsoon season!)

Cramped Close Quarters Makes For a Better Forecast, Right?

2010-04-23T00:10:00.002-05:00

http://www.flickr.com/photos/t_e_m_a/4422739321/

Always fun working with that bunch. We were in the regional communications trailer on an exercise and had a weak frontal boundary sneaking through. With about 15 multi-million dollar communications trucks sporting 40 foot antennas we wanted to make sure no lightning snuck up on us!

So I Have A Name Twin?

2010-03-06T19:23:00.002-06:00

Check this out...

http://arkansaschasers.webs.com/aboutme.htm

I knew there was a ballerina that shared the same name as me but didn't know there was another weather related "Justin Gibbs" out there. He maintains a fairly spread out series of blogs and photos from his exploits on the chase field, where I don't have anything out there like that as far as I know. Actually I don't have any weather related info out there since going to work for the State to avoid conflict of interest, but anyway still interesting and goes to show how small a world it is!

A Quick Update

2009-10-02T04:10:00.002-05:00

I've heard from a few of you that noticed the posts dropped off very quickly in late August! Nothing bad has happened, in fact much the opposite. I started in mid August with the Tennessee Emergency Management Agency, in their Operations Division. Operations focuses on directing the state response to a multitude of emergencies across the state, which very much includes weather, and my experience and education has come in quite handy so far. I am pretty sure im in a very slim minority of people who have both called TO the state warning point from a National Weather Service office and BEEN the state warning point from the State Emergency Operations Center. Not to mention all of the other things that we do both weather related and otherwise. I've worn a lot of hats! It has been a very fun challenge so far though and it is always great to have a job that deals directly with helping others.

Anyway, with the full time (actually quite a bit more than full time) job that almost always has me working during severe weather I haven't been able to maintain this blog and just wanted to let you know why!

Hurricane Bill's Track Shifts East...

2009-08-21T16:12:00.002-05:00

The National Weather Service conducted two special missions into the area surrounding Hurricane Bill yesterday afternoon. The airplanes flew in close proximity to the storm and took observations of the atmosphere surrounding the hurricane. These observations were examined and put into the computer models that we use to forecast the track and intensity of the storm. Normally, the air around the ocean is analyzed by satellite and leads to larger errors in sampling. With the new data we can more definitively say this afternoon that Hurricane Bill will pass a couple hundred miles east of the Rhode Island/Massachusetts coast Saturday Night into Sunday.

The best information that I can put together still suggests the possibility of winds strong enough to do damage across portions of eastern Massachusetts, especially Cape Cod and vicinity and eastern Rhode Island. Sustained winds up to 40 to 50 mph will be possible with higher gusts, up to 60 to 70 mph at times may accompany Bill's passage. Very heavy rain, possibly enough to cause flooding will be likely, especially as the storm interacts with a frontal boundary approaching from the west which has caused numerous thunderstorms along it in New England this afternoon.

Nova Scotia, and Newfoundland both still remain in the direct path of Hurricane Bill. The storm is expected to lose its tropical characteristics as it moves into the vicinity of Newfoundland, but do not let that cause you to let your guard down. The winds will be over hurricane force regardless of what "type" of storm Bill is when it makes its approach. The most likely scenario at this point calls for a category one, or possibly two hurricane to make landfall or come very close to the southeastern Nova Scotian coast late Sunday or Monday and move northeastward rapidly and into or near Newfoundland by Monday afternoon.

The bottom line is that hurricane conditions can be expected across much of Nova Scotia and Newfoundland Sunday into Monday and that tropical storm force conditions are possible across portions of Massachusetts, Rhode Island, and possibly Maine and New Hampshire Saturday night into Sunday.

Thursday Afternoon Bill Update

2009-08-20T15:06:00.003-05:00

Hurricane Bill remains a threat to the northeastern United States and southeastern Canada this evening...

The storm is a solid category three hurricane this afternoon and should continue to hover around that status with some strengthening possible as the storm continues moving northwest. Computer guidance continues to draw a cone generally east of New England, but close enough that impacts will likely be felt.

A continued slight westward trend seems to be continuing in guidance, with models indicating an increase in strength in the ridge to the east and a slowing of the trough to the west. The GFDL for the first time today suggested the possibility of hurricane force winds and stronger in eastern Massachusetts as Bill passes nearby.

It would be foolish to get into the minutia of what will happen where, and when exactly, but from the latest data and observations it seems that a threat for wind and weather significant enough to cause disruption to daily life is possible through Connecticut (especially eastern), Rhode Island, eastern Massachusetts, southeastern New Hampshire, and eastern Maine. Portions of Nova Scotia and Newfoundland have a very high likelihood of taking a direct, or near direct strike from a storm that will likely be around category one or two intensity Monday when it moves in. The strongest impacts in the northeast still look to be felt from Sunday morning into Sunday evening.

I still recommend those in the path of this storm to look into their hurricane safety plans and consider what actions may best benefit them to prepare for this storm. Areas around Cape Cod and other RI/MA shorelines are by far under the highest risk for impact, and it is very conceivable that these areas will see at least a period of hurricane conditions (which include sustained winds of 74 mph or higher) some time Sunday. Other areas look to recieve significant rainfall amounts and winds strong enough to do damage in places.

Severe Weather Possible Thursday

2009-08-19T19:14:00.004-05:00

Scattered showers and thunderstorms will persist over the next few hours across portions of western Kentucky and middle Tennessee. These storms have stayed below severe limits over the last few days and that looks to remain the case tonight. Storms will most likely reach a minimum in coverage by daybreak and slowly begin to build through about 10 a.m. tomorrow. Storms will likely remain isolated to scattered early in the morning becoming more numerous by early afternoon.

An upper level disturbance which is pushing along a surface cold front will begin to approach the area by the afternoon. Storms should become relatively well organized by early afternoon and severe weather is most likely in the form of damaging winds, during the afternoon and early evening hours across the area on Thursday.

The frontal boundary should clear the region overnight Thursday providing the area with a much less humid and cooler with highs in the mid 80s by Friday and for the weekend.

Bill Posing A Threat...

2009-08-19T15:11:00.003-05:00

Hurricane Bill is still a very formidable category four storm this afternoon with maximum sustained winds per the latest recon flight around 135 mph. Examining the near-storm environment shows relatively favorable conditions, albeit some shear. The environment around the storm should essentially remain unchanged for the next 36 hours or so, so minus a few eyewall replacement cycles I'd think the storm will maintain category four intensity through that time period.

The storm may then begin to interact somewhat with an area of enhanced shear from an upper level low located about 1000 miles to its northeast this afternoon. This may work to weaken Bill somewhat as it passes between Bermuda and the United States.

There has been a notable shift westward this afternoon in track guidance with Bill and while its not responsible to make too much of little shifts in guidance. It is reaffirming some concern in my mind that Bill will pass close enough to provide some level of threat to portions of Connecticut, Rhode Island, Massachusetts and Maine. The track guidance has been fairly consistent in indicating a significant threat to Nova Scotia and Newfoundland.

The cone that the storm would most likely pass remains largely unchanged this afternoon with the highest threat a few hundred miles east of Rhode Island, extending to about 500 miles east, and then to the west towards the actual coast of the northeastern United States.

It's still just a bit too early to really begin getting concerned about direct impact, and the highest probabilities still remain offshore, but those in Nova Scotia and Newfoundland would not be wasting their time to begin preparing for hurricane conditions on Monday. If I were in Conneticut, Rhode Island, eastern Massachussets and Maine, I believe I would be making a trip to gather materials necessary for a possible impact from this storm, things such as non-perishable foods, batteries, flashlights, first aid kits, and other items necessary to survived a prolonged power outage, and possible wind damage. The most likely time for impact, if impact were to occur is Sunday morning into Sunday.

Again, the storm most likely will pass east, but the threat to portions of the northeast appears significant enough to begin taking action. By this time tomorrow we should have a clearer picture of where Bill is headed.

A Look at Bill This Morning...

2009-08-18T06:05:00.003-05:00

This is the latest computer model "spaghetti" plot on Hurricane Bill. The storm is still steadily intensifying and is currently a category two storm. From its appearance on satellite and the surrounding conditions, I expect the storm will intensify further today and will likely end Tuesday as a major hurricane. The storm should move a few hundred miles northeast of the Virgin Islands and northern Lesser Antillies tonight. Over the next few days thje storm should move between the subtropical ridge to the east and an approaching trough currently located over the eastern United States. Currently, as you can see the projections call for Bill to pass several hundred miles east of the northeastern United States and possibly into southeastern Canada in a few days.

It appears to me this morning that based on the positioning of both the ridge and trough there is a pretty wide cone that Bill could eventually find its way down. I still believe that while the chances are somewhat low of an impact on the eastern United States, those in this area should very closely monitor the latest developments on Bill and begin thinking about what you would do in the event the forecast changes. Those in Nova Scotia and Newfoundland see a significantly higher threat to landfall and it likely would not be a waste of time to begin making plans for a possible landfall, or near miss, sometime Sunday night or Monday.

Claudette Helping Provide Rain Today...More Tomorrow

2009-08-17T15:45:00.002-05:00

The outflow from what is left of Tropical Depression Claudette appear to be aiding in the development of scattered rain showers across middle Tennessee and western Kentucky this afternoon. These showers, while numerous are very small in areal size and shouldn't last more than a few minutes. However, most will probably be very heavy rain producers while they are in the area.

A cold frontal boundary to the northwest of us is expected to continue to slide southeastward tonight and tomorrow, slowing as it does. The front should be close enough to bring greater coverage of rain tomorrow as it works with the remnants of Claudette and the enhanced moisture it brings. An upper level wave will move in Thursday and should push the front far enough south that some of us, especially to the north will dry out by Friday, but Thursday will probably be the wettest of the work week. I don't see any obvious indicators of widespread flooding with Claudette in this area, but a few areas might see some localized problems, especially by Thursday. Most areas will probably see between 0.25 and 0.50 inches of rain total.

Hurricane Bill was upgraded last night as it gained intensity over the open Atlantic Ocean. The storm is projected to continue to slowly intensify over the next few days. Most major intensity projections call for the storm to reach category 3 or 4 status by the time it passes east of the Bahamas on Friday. The HWRF computer model actually calls for the storm to reach above the limits of category 5 with an intensity of 911mb with winds over 160 mph by Saturday morning. Hard to know if this would be the case but it will be interesting to see. At this point it still looks to move east of the United States, but the northeastern portions of the U.S. should probably be monitoring this storm over the next few days to make sure that there are no changes. Bermuda may end up taking a direct, or near direct hit from this storm if the current track projections maintain.

Rain Looks To Pick Up This Week

2009-08-16T22:34:00.005-05:00

Well Tropical Cyclones Ana and Bill are behaving similarly to what was forecast on the blog here last night. Ana has degenerated to the point that I think it may be declassified sometime Monday, and may have already lost tropical characteristics. Bill is slowly strengthening and looks more likely to recurve as a hurricane north of Puerto Rico in 4-6 days.

There was one fly in the ointment. Tropical Storm Claudette formed early this morning just off the Florida panhandle and is just offshore of Destin Florida as of this writing. The storm is forecast to move northward over the next few days and move into the Tennessee Valley Tuesday.

This is a rather weak storm and I generally don't expect we will get a big 2 day long soaking rain from it, but I do think we will start to see slightly increased rain/thunderstorm chances late tomorrow and especially Tuesday afternoon as the system moves in. For now it looks like the storm will move in and weaken, but generally increase our low level moisture along and just south of a boundary over Missouri/Illinois/Indiana and we may see a period of enhanced showers and thunderstorms for Tuesday, Wednesday, Thursday. I don't expect a washout really for either day, but there could be pretty solid coverage, with Thursday looking to be the wettest for now.

Things Quiet On The Home Front...Getting Busier In The Tropics

2009-08-15T22:14:00.003-05:00

Were getting into a very typical Tennessee Valley summertime pattern as we hit the halfway mark through August. Hot, humid days with scattered showers and thunderstorms will be the rule for the next few days. No significant deviation really looks to come into play for the next few days.

In the tropics though there are a few items of note:

The area labeled "1" is an area of disturbed weather ahead of an upper level trough over the central Gulf of Mexico. The area is poorly organized and theres quite a bit of upper shear in this region. Widespread showers and thunderstorms should persist for the next few days on the western Florida coastline and its slightly possible, although somewhat unlikely that this area will increase in coverage and intensity and develop into a weak tropical cylcone.

The area labeled "2" is a cut off upper level low pressure system which is sliding westward towards the Bahamas. This area is not of a "tropical cylcone" type nature, and in fact is exactly the opposite, where tropical cylcones rotate counter clockwise at the surface, they rotate clockwise aloft, this storm is rotating counter clockwise throughout the entire atmosphere. The area is significant because it and the the other tropical upper tropospheric trough to the east will aid in eroding a weakness in the subtropical ridge, which will be the primary steering force behind our next two systems.

"Ana" was upgraded last night to tropical storm status, but looks frankly, miserable tonight. A CIMSS shear analysis indicates up to 20 knots of westerly shear with stronger shear just ahead of it. Microwave satellite imagery indicates an area of weak convection near the center which is helping the storm hold its identity, but conventional satellite imagery in the area seems to indicate it is moving into an area of drier air, and thus less buyoancy. Most of the available model guidance maintain Anas identity and bring it into Puerto Rico and the greater antillies islands over the next 48 hours. Personally, it seems that based on her appearance tonight, Ana may have a tough time surviving the impending dry air and extensive shear, which will likely not dramatically let up in the next few days. Either way the storm may end up bringing enhanced rainfall to Cuba, Hispanola, and Puerto Rico and neighboring islands.

"Bill" is the current wildcard of the bunch. Conventional and microwave satellite imagery indicate that the storm is slowly organizing and strengthening. Essentially all available computer guidance bring Bill to hurricane intensity by 5 days from now where the storm is poised to be a few hundred miles northeast of the U.S. Virgin Islands. From there most guidance curves the storm northward into the open Atlantic. From the analysis presented tonight and the current pattern, it seems this is the most likely solution. The only wildcard for now seems to be exactly "When" that recurvature will occur. A few more dependable track models curve it northward close enough to Florida to cause a few nervous moments for residents and emergency personnel there. At this point though, too early tell what the storm will do, and I wouldn't be tremendously surprised (although I don't care to quarrel with every major computer model on the planet too much) if the shear was stronger than currently forecast and the storm had a more difficult time reaching hurricane intensity than is currently projected, but I guess we shall see!

Hurricane Felicia Aims For Hawaii

2009-08-08T22:19:00.003-05:00

Earlier tonight the Central Pacific Hurricane Center in Honolulu issued Tropical Storm Watches for the islands of Maui, Lanai, Molokai, Kahoolawe and Hawai'i in the state of Hawai'i in advance of Hurricane Felicia.

The storm is currently a category one hurricane and expected to weaken into a tropical storm before either directly impacting one of the afforementioned islands or passing just in between them and moving westward just south of most all of the islands. This storm is poised to be the first direct active tropical cyclone strike since Hurricane Iniki in 1992. (I am almost sure of this, there may have been one weaker one sneak in there, but I don't believe so)

Flash Flood Watches have been posted for about half of the state and flooding and wind look to be enough of a threat to do damage and cause problems. Especially if the storm maintains more intensity than currently forecast (which it very well may do) or reintensify some and reorgnanize just south of the islands (as some models have forecast)

Either way worth watching how this plays out, especially with the lack of activity in the Atlantic basin.

Quiet Here...But Not In the Eastern Pacific

2009-08-06T12:59:00.004-05:00

As a ridge builds in from the west over western Kentucky and middle Tennessee expect mostly sunny skies with daily highs getting about 1 to 2 degrees warmer each day. By the weekend we will see highs around 92 with lows around 70.

Were enjoying relatively quiet weather but there is one pretty impressive storm in another part of the world. Hurricane Felicia is maintaining its intensity as a category four hurricane over the open eastern Pacific ocean this afternoon about 1500 miles east of Hilo, Hawaii. The Hawaiian islands are closely monitoring this storm as current forecasts carry the storm into the Big Island (the southeastern most island in the state) The storm will likely encounter higher amounts of shear and cooler water temperatures as it moves towards the islands, but the islands look to see at least some effects from this storm.

Here is a look at the latest satellite image from Felicia. As you can see the storm has a large well defined eye and is very symmetrical. The storm remains in a favorable area for further intensification and could grow a bit stronger tonight before likely beginning a weakening trend some time tomorrow.

Severe Thunderstorm Update

2009-08-04T19:22:00.002-05:00

At 7:22 p.m, radar indicated a line of severe thunderstorms fro 10 miles southwest of Mayfield, to near Fort Campbell, KY, to 12 miles northeast of Hopkinsville.

This line is moving southeast at 45 mph. Reports along the line have averaged from 45 to 60 mph with trees and power lines down and minor roof damage reported. The line will move into Middle Tennessee over the next hour and into Clarksville by 7:30, Nashville around 8:45 and Murfreesboro around 9:15.

Severe Thunderstorm Update

2009-08-04T17:37:00.003-05:00

At 5:37 p.m., radar indicated a line of severe thunderstorms from 27 miles west of Paducah to near Elizabethtown, Illinois. This line is moving southeast at 40 mph.

This line has a history of wind damage in southern Illinois and radar indicates areas of winds exceeding 70 mph with this line. The storms will be near

Paducah around 6 p.m.
Benton and Mayfield around 6:30 p.m.
Murray and Cadiz around 6:45 p.m.

In addition to the threat of damaging winds, large hail may briefly occur with this storm, and the line will be capable of brief damaging downburst winds up to 75 mph in isolated locations along the line. Very brief tornadoes may also be possible as the line moves through western Kentucky.

Weather Watch Update

2009-08-04T15:41:00.002-05:00

The National Weather Service has issued a new Severe Thunderstorm Watch which includes portions of middle Tennesssee east of Interstate 24 north of Nashville and north of Interstate 40 east of Nashville. This watch is in effect until 10 p.m. Severe weather will be possible this evening across much of middle Tennessee.

Severe Thunderstorm Watch

2009-08-04T15:31:00.002-05:00

Strong heating this afternoon has aided in making the atmosphere very unstable and favorable for the development of thunderstorms. An approaching upper level disturbance is moving in from southeastern Missouri and southern Illinois. This area is expected to interact with an area of thunderstorms over south central Kentucky and storms are expected to increase in coverage and intensity over the next couple of hours over western Kentucky.

Storms will develop from east to west and move slowly southeastward this afternoon. Many storms will likely reach severe limits with large hail and damaging winds the main threats.

The severe weather threat will likely carry into middle Tennessee by early evening.

More Storms Tomorrow Night

2009-08-03T12:23:00.003-05:00

Thunderstorms are likely tomorrow night across most of western Kentucky and Middle Tennessee. Storms will likely begin in the early afternoon across southern Illinois, southeast Missouri, and western Kentucky and begin to move southeast into middle Tennessee in the early evening hours.

There is some conditionality in thunderstorm development but if storms do manage to get going there likely will be several of them become severe. The main threat for severe weather appears to be very large hail and damaging winds up to 60 mph.

Yet More Rain

2009-08-01T14:18:00.002-05:00

Scattered rain showers are building across much of middle Tennessee and western Kentucky this afternoon. These showers will grow in coverage and intensity through the 6 p.m. hour tonight giving several areas a brief rain shower.

This evening a larger area of heavier and more widespread precipitation will move in. Heavier rain showers and embedded thunderstorms will accompany this area. Rainfall amounts will be heaviest over middle Tennessee where a Flood Watch has been issued until 9 a.m. Sunday.

Rainfall amounts will vary between one quarter of an inch over most of western Kentucky to up to one inch in localized areas of middle Tennessee. The rain should persist through the morning hours Sunday. Be alert this evening for the possibility of localized flooding.

Severe Weather Calming...Rain Moving In

2009-07-30T21:32:00.002-05:00

As the system that produced several significant tornadoes and reports of wind damage across west Tennessee moves east tonight its encountering a rapidly stabilizing airmass across much of middle Tennessee. As a result, the widespread severe weather threat has diminished significantly. A few isolated wind gusts to 40 mph may be possible in and around metro Nashville over the next hour or so.

Quite a bit of rain will fall through western Kentucky and middle Tennessee through the evening and into the overnight. Expect rainfall of up to one inch in a few places. A few spots across the region will almost certainly have a few localized flooding problems, especially near the KY/TN border.

Tornado Watch Extended

2009-07-30T17:43:00.003-05:00

The weather service has extended the tornado watch into Bedford, Giles, Marshall, Rutherford, Sumner and Wilson Counties in Tennessee until midnight.

Data continues to indicate a strong likelihood for severe weather this evening mainly from about 9 p.m. to 3 a.m. across middle Tennessee. Tornadoes, and damaging winds can be expected in association with a line of thunderstorms that will move northeastward across the area.

Tornado Watch for Portions of the Area

2009-07-30T16:38:00.002-05:00

The National Weather Service has issued a Tornado Watch until midnight tonight for areas of middle Tennessee generally west of Interstate 65. Stronger than expected sun coverage today has led to a rather unstable airmass across portions of the area. An upper level trough is initiating showers and thunderstorms in far southwestern Tennessee and northwest Mississippi. This area of convection will continue northeastward and move into middle Tennessee late this evening and overnight.

The potential for severe weather will remain through the overnight hours as the complex moves into middle Tennessee and areas east of I-65 will also probably see a tornado watch issued later this evening.

Isolated tornadoes, and damaging winds in excess of 60 mph will be the main threat with this line of storms. The best timing estimate would put the system within a reasonable distance of Nashville around or just before midnight.

A Flood Watch has also been issued for middle Tennessee tonight. Areas of flooding will be possible in areas that see prolonged thunderstorm development.

Monitor NOAA Weather radio and local media for later statements and possible warnings.

Biggest Round Of Rain Yet

2009-07-29T15:14:00.002-05:00

Another round of widespread rainfall will begin in the evening and especially overnight hours across middle Tennessee and western Kentucky. Two separate disturbances will be in play. The first wave, a weaker one is currently situated over southern Missouri, this wave is helping to spark the scattered shower and thundershower activity we are seeing across middle Tennessee and southcentral Kentucky. Another heavier batch of precipitation has formed to the south across portions of Texas, Arkansas, and Mississippi this area will move in overnight tonight.

A second, stronger trough will move into the region tomorrow afternoon and help set off a day of widespread rain and thunderstorms across the region Thursday. Rainfall amounts will likely be around one-half inch with locally higher amounts. There may be a few storms that will be strong to severe, although the threat for widespread severe weather is relatively low. The main threat with any storms that do become severe will be damaging winds.

Rainfall amounts still look to be too low for widespread flooding, but towards midday tomorrow thunderstorms will likely lead to locally heavier rainfall amounts that will spark localized flooding. It would be a good idea to maintain awareness to the possibility of street flooding during the day tomorrow and maintain awareness for flash flooding if you are in a flood prone area.

By Friday much of the rain and cloud cover should be exiting the region to the west with temperatures rebounding towards the low to mid 80s.

Forecast...
Tonight...scattered showers and thunderstorms early then rain towards daybreak. Chance of rain 80 percent. Lows near 70.
Thursday...Rain. Thunderstorms also likely. Up to one half of an inch of new rainfall will be possible. Chance of rain near 100 percent. Highs in the upper 70s.
Thursday Night...Rain and thunderstorms continue, coverage will likely peak around 4 p.m. Chance of rain near 100 percent. Lows in the upper 60s.

Rain Continuing Today through Thursday

2009-07-28T13:45:00.004-05:00

This afternoon a very healthy coverage of rain and thundershowers is spread across most of middle Tennessee and western Kentucky. Surface observations and radar estimates indicate most areas have seen between 0.3 and 0.6 inches so far today with more falling and more on the way.

Satellite imagery indicates three separate disturbances that are taking aim on the region. The first one currently centered over southwest Missouri and northwest Arkansas is helping produce the precipitation we are experiencing today. This system should aid in the continued development of rain and thundershowers through the rest of the day today and into the evening hours.

A second, weaker disturbance will move through tomorrow afternoon, this should help keep clouds in place for the most part and spark additional rainfall. There will be plenty of rain tomorrow but the coverage may be a little less than what we are experiencing today.

A third and final system will move into the area Thursday. At this time this system will likely be the strongest of the three providing widespread rain and scattered thunderstorms. Rainfall amounts Thursday will likely exceed 1/2 inch in most places. Thunderstorms will also likely be more numerous, but significant cloud cover should limit available instability enough to prevent much in the way of severe weather.

It currently appears that the rainfall maxima will be spread out enough and the overall amounts low enough to prevent widespread flooding, however, with the high coverage of rainfall over the next few days areas will be more vulnerable to local flooding in areas where thunderstorms produce heavier rains.

Forecast...
Tonight...Rain likely with isolated thunderstorms. Low in the upper 60s. Light south winds. Chance of rain 60 percent.
Wednesday...Rain with isolated thunderstorms. Highs around 80. West winds around 5 mph. Chance of rain 80 percent.
Wednesday Night...Rain likely. Lows around 70. Light south winds. Chance of rain 70 percent.

Rainy Week Ahead

2009-07-27T21:11:00.002-05:00

Isolated thunderstorms will continue across portions of western Kentucky through the midnight hour, but more widespread rain will begin moving into the region in the morning and early afternoon hours Tuesday.

Widespread rainfall will likely occur for much of the afternoon and early evening across western Kentucky and middle Tennessee. Scattered thunderstorms will also be possible. More scattered rain and thundershowers will hang around through Wednesday with another peak in precipitation Thursday evening. A peak in thunderstorm chances will also center around early Thursday evening in middle Tennessee and western Kentucky.

It appears for now that the average rainfall across the region will be from 1 to 3 inches. Some areas, especially those that experience thunderstorms may see heavier rainfall and will begin to see localized flood threats emerge. At this time however, it appears the threat for widespread flooding is relatively low.

Another Round Thursday

2009-07-16T00:43:00.002-05:00

Patchy fog may form over the next few hours across portions of western Kentucky and middle Tennessee. The fog should quickly dissipate after sunrise.

Another day of thunderstorms can be expected across most of western Kentucky and middle Tennessee Thursday. A cold frontal boundary that helped initiate this evenings thunderstorms has stalled this evening from west to east just north of the area. Another upper level disturbance is forecast to move in by around noon tomorrow. This will help set off another round of thunderstorms across most of the area. Some of these storms may be severe with damaging winds, colder temperatures aloft will also bring large hail into the picture as a secondary severe weather threat.

Timing wise, thunderstorms will likely continue to initiate along and south of the frontal boundary over southeastern Missouri and northern Arkansas, and southwest Kentucky and northwest Tennessee. The intensity and coverage of these storms will likely increase through the early and mid morning hours as the upper level disturbance approaches. By around noon it is quite possible that we will see another well-organized squall line bringing with it a threat for damaging winds. The instability will be somewhat limited in the early morning hours until daytime heating takes effect due to the extensive cooling provided by this evenings thunderstorms, so the threat for severe storms will increase as the day wears on, with the threat for severe weather likely peaking over middle Tennessee in the mid afternoon hours.

A secondary wave will also approach later in the evening hours providing what appears to be a secondary maximum for thunderstorms and precipitation. Thunderstorm and precipitation coverage will likely be rather high from the noontime hours Thurdsay through Friday afternoon with peaks in the afternoon Thursday, overnight Friday and early afternoon Friday.

While it appears most of the storms will be somewhat short lived in any given area, there is a threat for localized flooding due to slow moving thunderstorms.

Friday morning the frontal boundary will begin to pick up steam and move from northwest to southeast through the day, likely clearing middle Tennessee in the mid-afternoon. There will be a dramatically cooler airmass behind it which should provide clear skies and highs in the lower 80s for the weekend, with lows into the upper 50s.

Severe Thunderstorm Update

2009-07-15T19:16:00.002-05:00

At 7:16 pm, a line of severe thunderstorms with a history of wind damage was located from near Fulton, to 3 miles east of Bardwell. Additional strong storms stretched into western McCracken and eastern Ballard Counties.

The strongest part of this line was located between Fulton and Clinton and moving east at 50 mph. Wind gusts to 65 and 70 mph will be possible with this line as it moves through Fulton and into southern Graves County. The line will move into Water Valley around 7:20 Wingo by 7:25 and Sedalia around 7:30.

This line has blown roofs from businesses, overturned semi trucks, and blown trees down along its path in the last hour.

Thunderstorm Update

2009-07-15T18:47:00.002-05:00

At 6:48 p.m., a line of strong to severe thunderstorms was located from near Cairo, IL to near Hickman, KY. This line is moving east at about 40 mph. Some of the strongest portion of this line is moving into western Hickman County. This area is capable of destructive winds to 70 mph and hail to the size of quarters. This area will move towards Clinton by about 7:00 p.m.

Across Fulton County damaging winds to 60 mph will also be possible into Fulton by around 7:05 p.m.

Thunderstorm Update

2009-07-15T18:08:00.002-05:00

At 6:15 p.m., radar indicated a line of severe thunderstorms stretching from northeastern Arkansas into southeastern Missouri 6 miles northeast of Bloomfield. This line is moving east at 40 mph and will move into western Ketnucky around 7:15 p.m. Damaging winds to 60 mph will be possible with this line.

Another severe thunderstorm is located 3 miles southwest of Bardwell moving east at 35 mph. This storm is capable of hail to quarter size and damaging winds to 60 mph. Some weak rotation has been indicated with this storm, while not immediately likely a tornado may still develop with this storm.

Additional scattered thunderstorm development can be expected over the next hour across western Kentucky before the main line moves in.

Severe Thunderstorm Update

2009-07-15T15:47:00.002-05:00

At 3:48 pm...radar indicated a severe thunderstorm near Charlotte, moving southeast at 35 mph. This storm is capable of damaging downburst winds to 65 mph. This storm will be near Kingston Springs, White Bluff, and Fairview by around 4:20 p.m.

Stormy Few Days

2009-07-15T00:57:00.002-05:00

An upper level disturbance will help move a surface cold frontal boundary close to the region this afternoon across western Kentucky and middle Tennessee. Ahead of the front, southwest winds will usher in a much more humid airmass. By mid-afternoon daytime heating should provide a rather unstable airmass for most of the region. As the frontal boundary approaches from the north showers and thunderstorms will likely develop along and south of the boundary across western Kentucky. Additional more isolated shower and thunderstorm activity can be expected in middle Tennessee in the late afternoon hours and into the evening.

Some of the storms may be severe, with the main threat being damaging winds. The best chance for severe weather is in the late afternoon and evening hours across western Kentucky. The most likely form in which severe weather would occur is in the form of a squall line which would be moving generally from west to east.

Thursday the boundary is forecast to stall out from west to east across our region as another upper level impulse moves overhead. Additional thunderstorms can be expected across the region Thursday with coverage increasing in the late afternoon. Storms may become more organized in the early evening hours and coalesce into a squall line. At this point however the severe weather threat appears lower for Thursday as cloud cover looks to be more widespread, limiting daytime heating.

Friday the front is forecast to clear from northwest to southeast through the morning and afternoon hours. Another round of thunderstorms can be expected, most likely in the form of a squall line ahead of the frontal boundary. Severe weather appears at least somewhat plausible at this point, but questions exist regarding available instability.

Thunderstorm Update

2009-07-12T17:25:00.002-05:00

At 5:40 p.m., radar indicated a line of strong storms from Murray to near Cadiz, to near Greenville...moving southeast at 35 mph. Small hail, and gusty winds to 40 to 50 mph can be expected with this line as it moves through Cadiz by around 5:50 p.m. Clarksville around 6:15 and Hopkinsville by 6:30 p.m.

There is a rather good chance that the line will reach severe limits in places over the next few hours as it moves through south central Kentucky and into northern middle Tennessee.

Severe Thunderstorm Update

2009-07-12T16:47:00.002-05:00

At 4:49 p.m., radar indicated a severe thunderstorm capable of producing large hail up to the size of quarters, and damaging winds. This storm was located near Smithland and moving southeast at 35 mph. This storm will approach Calvert City by 5 p.m.

Radar also indicates a severe thunderstorm over southern Williamson County, moving southeast at 10 to 15 mph.

Nice Nights Ahead But Summer's Grip Returns

2009-07-07T22:23:00.002-05:00

Lows will likely nose down into the lower 70s and upper 60s for the next couple of nights, but the daytime highs and the humidity will be a firm part of each of the next few afternoons, especially Thursday and Friday.

Forecast highs across middle Tennessee and western Kentucky will run into the lower to mid 90s with heat indicies during the hottest part of the day running in the 100 degree range. There is some chance of rain late Saturday and Sunday but the general pattern of low to mid 90s highs and lower to mid 70s lows with abundant sunshine during the day looks to stick around for the next 7 to 10 days at least.

Severe Weather Update

2009-07-04T19:14:00.002-05:00

At 7:15 p.m., an extremely dangerous severe thunderstorm was located from near Erin, TN through western Montgomery County, and into southern Christian County.

This line of storms has a long history of destructive winds to 70 mph with numerous damage reports. The worst part of this line will move through Oak Grove and northern Clarksville through 7:30.

There have been reports of tornado touchdowns in western Montgomery County with this storm as well!

Severe Thunderstorm Update

2009-07-04T18:33:00.002-05:00

6:34 p.m...

A line of dangerous severe thunderstorms with a history of wind damage is located from near Hazel...to just south of Aurora into western Trigg County.

Portions of this line in western Trigg county and eastern Calloway County may experience destructive winds in excess of 70 mph. This line of severe thunderstorms will move into central Trigg county and Cadiz through 6:55 p.m.

Severe Weather Update

2009-07-04T17:57:00.002-05:00

At 5:57 p.m....

Line of severe thunderstorms from just northwest of Fulton, to near Mayfield to north central Graves county around Viola. Winds especially around Mayfield may be approaching 65-70 mph.

Another storm that is trying to produce a tornado between Aurora and Benton, moving east at 45 mph. The tornadic storm will move into LBL just north of Aurora through 6:15.

The line of severe thunderstorms will reach Benton around 6:30 p.m., and Murray by about 6:45 p.m.

Severe Weather Moving Through

2009-07-04T17:37:00.002-05:00

AT 5:38 p.m., radar indicated a tornado 5 miles east of Bardwell moving east at about 35 mph. A larger cluster of strong to severe storms was located from near Clinton to near Blandville also moving east at 35 mph. The strongest area of this storm was located just west of Fancy Farm.

This line of storm is capable of damaging winds over 60 mph and will be near Fancy Farm by about 5:45 and approaching Mayfield around 6 p.m.

Another strong storm was located near Calvert City, moving east at 35 mph. This storm will move through Draffenville, Benton, and the Kentucky Dam area through 6 p.m.

Severe Thunderstorm Watch Issued

2009-07-04T14:54:00.003-05:00

The Storm Prediction Center has put the purchase area of western Kentucky under a severe thunderstorm watch until 8 p.m. tonight.

It appears the most organized area of developing thunderstorms have aligned themselves from near Marion, Illinois to just west of Poplar Bluff, Missouri. That area is moving eastward around 35-40 mph. SPC MesoAnalysis indicates the area is becoming increasingly unstable as surface heating and moisture increases. SBCAPEs on the order of 3000 j/kg are indicated over Southeast Missouri and northeastern Arkansas and will likely be in place over western Kentucky by the time this line of storms arrive.

Damaging winds and frequent lightning will be the main threat with this line of storms.

Additional development may be possible behind the initial wave as the afternoon progresses.

Watch for Natural Fireworks Tonight

2009-07-04T00:39:00.004-05:00

There is a good chance for thunderstorms Independence day afternoon, and especially evening across most of western Kentucky and middle Tennessee. There is also a reasonable chance that some of these storms will be severe with damaging winds the main threat.

A storm system developing over the plains will continue to approach the region throughout the overnight hours and into the day on Saturday. As the system moves closer our current southeast winds will likely shift to the south and eventually southwest, streaming in very moist air from Louisiana, Arkansas and Mississippi. Cloud cover will also likely begin to build over the region, especially over western Kentucky throughout the early morning hours and into the afternoon as a brisk south wind of 10-20 mph takes hold, a few wind gusts late Saturday afternoon may move towards the 30 mph bracket.

The best chance for thunderstorms appears to be in the afternoon and early evening hours Saturday over western Kentucky and the early evening into the overnight in middle Tennessee. The storms will likely start out over Missouri as individual thunderstorms or clusters and move eastward as an organizing squall line as the event proceeds.

There is a relatively high likelihood that quite a few folks in western Kentucky and middle Tennessee will have their evening Independence Day festivities interrupted by rain and thunderstorms, possibly by strong to severe storms. Those participating in outdoor activities should be prepared to maintain awareness to rapidly changing weather conditions and seek shelter indoors should threatening weather approach. Remember, if you can hear thunder you are close enough to be struck by lightning.

Survey Says...A Microburst

2009-07-01T19:03:00.000-05:00

PUBLIC INFORMATION STATEMENT...CORRECTED 
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PADUCAH KY 
756 AM CDT WED JUL 1 2009 
  
..DAMAGE SURVEY RESULTS FOR CALLOWAY COUNTY KENTUCKY 

THE FOLLOWING IS THE DAMAGE ASSESSMENT FOR A DOWNBURST THAT OCCURRED  
IN MURRAY KENTUCKY ON TUESDAY. 

* EVENT DATE - MONDAY JUNE 30 2009 

* EVENT TIME - APPROX. 8 PM CDT 

* EVENT TYPE - DOWNBURST /MICROBURST/ 

* EVENT LOCATION - FROM 19TH STREET ON THE NORTHWEST SIDE OF TOWN TO  
THE INTERSECTION OF APPLEWOOD LANE AND HIGHWAY 121 ON THE SOUTHEAST  
SIDE OF TOWN.  

* PEAK WIND - 95 MPH 

* AVERAGE PATH WIDTH - .7 MILES 

* PATH LENGTH - 3.5 MILES 

* INJURIES - NONE 

* FATALITIES - NONE 

* DISCUSSION/DAMAGE - IN ADDITION TO DAMAMGE INCLUDED ON THE LOCAL  
STORM REPORT ISSUED TUESDAY EVENING...A DORM WALL WAS BLOWN OUT AT  
MURAY STATE UNIVERSITY. 

SURVEYOR...SHANKLIN 

 

JAP

Strong Storm Shakes Murray

2009-06-30T21:46:00.002-05:00

Will be work ahead to piece together exactly what happened but one thing is for sure a very hefty thunderstorm moved right through the city of Murray this evening around 8 p.m.

Damage reports are relatively sketchy right now, and not extremely serious, but they do range from roof and window damage in the northside shopping districts to tree damage with scattered roof and window damage further southeast. As of a few minutes ago 121 south just southeast of Murray was closed due to trees being over the roadway.

Several reports of hail from nickel size to just larger than quarters were recieved.

Given the atmospheric conditions present, the nature of the damage reports, and the radar presentation of the storm, a first guess would be a wet microburst as the main precipitation core collapsed. Radar indicated this process likely began around 7:58 p.m. as the storm approached midtown Murray. The lack of damage reports further southeast indicate that by around 8:07 this process had completed and the acceleration of the winds in the downburst had returned to more standard thunderstorm levels.

Preliminary damage reports are consistent with 60 to up to 70 mph. It is too early to definitively rule exactly what happened though. Crews with local emergency management and the National Weather Service will examine the damage to determine if it was a wet microburst, a tornado or other phenomena that led to the damage.

Hail and Damaging Winds in Western Kentucky

2009-06-30T20:32:00.002-05:00

At 8:32 p.m., radar showed 3 severe thunderstorms over western Kentucky and northwest Tennessee. The first, which has a history of producing large hail up to quarter size, and damaging winds over 60 mph, is located near Paris Landing. This storm has weakened somewhat but main continue to produce large hail and wind damage as it moves through northwestern Henry County.

The second storm is located 8 miles north of Cadiz, just west of I-24 at the Trigg/Lyon County line. This storm is moving east at about 25 mph, and will cross I-24 about 8:40 p.m. This storm is capable of destructive winds to 65 mph, and hail greater than quarter size. This storm will move through Ceurelan Springs and into northwestern Christian County through 9 p.m.

The third severe thundestorm is located over northeastern Todd County, this storm will move into northwestern Logan County through 9 p.m., this storm is also capable of damaging winds to 60 mph and hail to the size of quarters.

Dangerously Hot Today, Storms Possible in the Late Afternoon

2009-06-26T13:06:00.002-05:00

One more day in the furnace for those in middle Tennessee and Western Kentucky. Heat indicies are ranging between 103 and 108 across most of the region today as the humidity has really built back in along and south of a frontal boundary draped across northwest Kentucky and southern Illinois. This boundary should continue to approach our region later today and there is a reasonable chance it will pop a few showers and storms as it moves closer to the area late this afternoon and early this evening.

With the hot and sticky airmass in place some of the storms could be quite intense with a few possibly becoming severe before midnight.

As we progress through the weekend we will likely see another interaction with a cool front on Sunday bringing another chance of showers and storms. Behind the front we will see a pretty robust change in our airmass and should see our highs falling into the upper 80s with less humidity.

Middle Tennessee Storms Intensifying

2009-06-22T21:11:00.003-05:00

At 9:10 p.m. wind gusts to 60 mph were reported in southeastern Davidson County. Radar indicated that a broad area of winds up to 60 mph were possible associated with a severe thunderstorm across southeastern Davidson and northwestern Rutherford County, from just south of the airport to near Smyrna. This line is moving south at about 30 mph.

Nolensville, Murfreesboro and eastern Wilson and western Rutherford counties are in the path of this storm through 9:30.

Cluster of Thunderstorms Moving through Middle Tennessee and Western Kentucky

2009-06-22T20:58:00.003-05:00

At 9:00 p.m., radar indicate a line of thunderstorms from 10 miles southwest of Hopkinsville to near Lebanon. The strongest of these storms appears to be across southwestern Christian County a and eastern Trigg County. These storms were moving south at about 35 mph. Wind gusts to 50 mph and small hail will be possible with this storm. Another strong storm was located near Lebannon and moving south at about 30 mph. This storm has a history of wind damage. This storm will reach Murfreesboro and Smyrna round 925 p.m.

Giant Hail Possible in Trigg County

2009-06-18T01:54:00.001-05:00

At 1:56 a.m. radar indicated an extremely dangerous severe thunderstorm likely producing hail over 2 inches in diameter, and possibly up to the size of baseballs. This storm was located 5 miles northwest of Cadiz, and moving southeast at 15 mph. This storm will continue this movement and likely move near western Cadiz, and over Highway 68/80 in the next 15 minutes.

Take cover in a substantial shelter.

Dangerous Severe Thunderstorm

2009-06-18T01:43:00.002-05:00

At 1:43 a.m., radar indicated an extremely dangerous severe thunderstorm 12 miles northwest of Cadiz, moving southeast at 15 mph. Radar indicates hail to 2 inches in diameter or larger, and damaging winds to 65 mph are possible with this storm.

Radar also indicates developing rotation and a tornado may become possible over the next 15 minutes.

Rural south central Lyon and north central Trigg Counties are in the path of this dangerous storm.

Take cover now!

Flash Flood Update

2009-06-18T01:23:00.002-05:00

Dangerous flooding continues in Caldwell, Christian and Trigg Counties.

The latest reports from Princeton indicate that significant flooding is occurring there with "most" streets impassable according to local authorities. There are a few reports now of water getting into homes, although to what extent isn't clear at this time. Radar trends show that the rain may be slowly coming to an end in Princeton, with at least another inch still coming for most folks in southern Caldwell County, and northeastern Trigg County, where several inches of rain has already fallen.

Travelers in this region should expect to run into significant flooding. Travel in this region is discouraged until the floodwaters have a chance to recede and daylight shines light on already flooded areas. Never drive your car into an area where waters covers the roadway, you can easily be swept away by waters that are only a few inches deep.

Flash Flood Update

2009-06-17T23:56:00.003-05:00

Flooding situation continues to worsen across portions of Caldwell, Trigg and Christian Counties, more serious flooding reports coming in, rain continues to fall.

Spotters in Caldwell County report that numerous roads and streets throughout the county and in Princeton are closed and that water is approaching homes in some areas of the city. The Kentucky Mesonet site at Princeton reports 2.9 inches of rain in the past two hours in the city.

At 11:57 p.m., radar indicated that 2-4 inches of rain have fallen since 9 p.m. in northeastern Trigg and Caldwell counties. Additional strong storms are moving into the area and additional heavy rain is likely with up to 1 to 2 inches of additional rain possible tonight. More roadways will become unpassable over the next few hours and life threatening conditions likely exist on many roadways. Use extreme caution if you must travel tonight in the area. Never drive your car through an area where water covers the roadway as the depth may be too great to allow safe passage.

Flash Flooding Possible

2009-06-17T23:26:00.000-05:00

Significant Flash Flooding is possible tonight over portions of Trigg, Caldwell, and Christian County.

At 11:25 p.m., radar indicated at least 2 inches of rain had fallen in the last two hours across Princeton, and point south into eastern Trigg and western Christian county. Additional strong to severe storms producing rainfall rates up near 2 inches per hour are expected to persist in this region over the next hour or so and reports of unpassable roadways due to high water are already being received in the Princeton area.

Expect numerous roadways in this region to become impassable. Exercise extreme caution while driving. Never drive your car into an area where water covers the roadway.

Thunderstorm Update

2009-06-17T21:04:00.002-05:00

At 9:05 p.m., a severe thunderstorm was located 7 miles southwest of Cadiz...moving south at 15 mph. Linton and rural southern Trigg County are in the path of this storm. This storm is capable of quarter sized hail and damaging winds to 60 mph.

The axis of thunderstorms that have been moving through middle Tennessee now stretches from southwestern Davidson County to just northeast of Charlotte, to just south of Clarksville. These storms have weakened markedly over the past few minutes, but constant lightning, small hail, and gusty winds will remain possible for the next hour or so.

More Big Thunderstorms

2009-06-17T20:13:00.002-05:00

Two large severe thunderstorms are impacting middle Tennessee.

At 8:15 p.m., a severe thunderstorm capable of producing a tornado was located 7 miles west of Pleasant View, moving south at 15 mph. This is a large severe thunderstorm capable of golf ball sized hail and damaging winds to 70 mph. This storm will move into Ashland City through 8:30 and move into eastern Dickson and western Davidson County by around 9 p.m.

A second significant severe thunderstorm was located over north Clarksville, moving south at about 15 mph. This storm is capable of destructive hail to the size of golfballs and damaging winds to 70 mph. Radar indicates the storm may become capable of tornado production over the next 15 minutes. This storm will impact the city of Clarksville through 8:40 p.m.

The Broken Record Continues

2009-06-17T16:48:00.003-05:00

Thunderstorms developing in the greater Nashville area this afternoon, several of them have become severe.

At 4:48 p.m., radar indicated 2 main clusters of thunderstorms, one was diving into northeastern middle Tennessee into Roberston and Sumner counties from just north of the Kentucky state line. The other, and more significant cluster was across western Williamson and northwestern Maury county moving east at about 15 mph, another strong storm was developing over northern Marshall County.

Radar indicates the strongest of these storms is about 15 miles southwest of Franklin moving east southeast at about 20 mph. This storm is capable of golf ball sized hail and damaging winds to 60 mph. The storm will move across rural areas of Maury and southern Williamson County through and Spring Hill through 515 and approach Interstate 65 near Spring Hill around 5:30.

A second severe storm was located about 11 miels northwest of Franklin moving east southeast at 15 mph. This storm will likely approach Franklin after about 5:15 this afternoon.

Additional severe storms will be possible this afternoon, check here for updates and monitor local media and NOAA Weather radio for the latest severe weather warnings.

Thunderstorm Update

2009-06-16T15:30:00.002-05:00

AT 3:31 p.m...radar indicated a line of strong to severe thunderstorms from 5 miles east of Murfreesboro...to 9 miles northeast of Celina...moving east at 50 mph.

This line is capable of producing brief wind gusts to 40 to 50 mph along its entire length, and pockets of wind damage in localized spots over 60 mph.

Thunderstorm Update

2009-06-16T14:49:00.001-05:00

At 2:49 p.m., radar indicated a line of severe thunderstorms stretching from Spring Hill to near Smyrna, to near Lebannon.

Radar indicates the highest potential for damaging winds is in and close to Lebannon in central Wilson County. It appears that further south of there, there is a strong gust front ahead of the thunderstorms that will likely feature 40-50 mph winds, followed by a brief period of small hail, heavy rain, and dangerous lightning.

This gust front will approach Murfreesboro just after 3 p.m. with thunderstorms to follow about 15 minutes later.

Quick Update

2009-06-16T14:37:00.000-05:00

2:37 p.m. radar indicates the area most likely to produce a tornado was between Mt. Juliet and Belinda City moving east at 45 mph.

A funnel cloud is being reported with this storm and a tornado may form at any moment!

Thunderstorm Update

2009-06-16T14:21:00.002-05:00

At 2:22 p.m., radar indicated a line of severe thunderstorms from 4 miles west of Brentwood...to just east of Portland in Sumner County. Radar shows several areas of 60-65 mph winds with this storm across Davidson and Sumner counties.

Radar still indicates the possibility of a Tornado 8 miles northwest of Mount Juliet...moving east southeast at 50 mph. The storm may remain capable of producing a tornado as it nears Mt. Juliet and crosses Interstate 40 just west of Belinda City.

Estimated Times of Arrival for the larger line...
Gallatin around 230 p.m....
Lebannon around 250 p.m...
Franklin around 235 p.m...
Murfreesboro around 305 p.m...

This line has a history of wind damage including downed trees and power lines.

Tornado Possible in northern Davidson County

2009-06-16T14:10:00.002-05:00

At 2:11 p.m., radar indicated a tornado developing in northern Davidson County 2 miles northeast of the 24/65 split. This tornado was moving east at 50 mph. Areas of Davidson county along and north of the Briley Parkway at the 65 split are in its path.

Take cover now.

Thunderstorm Update

2009-06-16T14:03:00.003-05:00

72 mph wind gust reported in Dickson County, radar indicates other areas of localized extreme winds.

At 2:03 p.m., radar indicated a line of strong to severe thunderstorms from 16 miles southwest of downtown Nashville, to the TN/KY border northeast of Springfield. This line was moving east at 50 mph. Damaging winds to 60 mph with localized winds higher than that can be expected.

Areas in northern Davidson County near Madison may experience the higher winds with winds up to 70 mph possible.

Approximate arrival times...

Nashville through 215...
Gallatin around 230...
Murfreesboro around 310...

Thunderstorm Update

2009-06-16T13:25:00.003-05:00

The line of severe thunderstorms that has been impacting western Kentucky this morning and afternoon is now moving into the greater Nashville area.

At 1:25 p.m., radar indicated a line of severe thunderstorms from near Clarksville to 10 miles west of Charlotte, moving east at 50 mph. This line of storms has a history of producing winds to near 60 mph and knocking trees and power lines down.

This line of storms will be near Charlotte by 1:40 and Nashville by 2:10 p.m.

Thunderstorm Update

2009-06-16T13:13:00.002-05:00

Line showing a bit of intensification over the past few minutes...62 mph gust reported in southern Christian County.

At 1:14 p.m., a line of severe thunderstorms was located from near Oak Grove to just east of the Henderson/Daviess County line. The line was moving east at 50 mph.

Over the past few minutes a 62 mph wind gust was reported in southern Christian County and a 51 mph wind gust was recorded at Madisonville.

The line will approach Greenville...Elkton...and Owensboro around 1:30.

Thunderstorm Update

2009-06-16T12:46:00.002-05:00

At 12:47 p.m., radar indicated a line of strong to severe thunderstorms from near Linton in Trigg County, to just southwest of Henderson...moving east at 50 mph.

This line has produced winds generally in the 40-50 mph bracket, with occasional gusts strong enough to knock down trees, powerlines, and do minor roof damage. This will likely continue through the next hour as the line moves into south central Kentucky.

Approximate Arrival Times...
Henderson about 105 p.m...
Hopkinsville around 110 p.m...
Madisonville around 110 p.m...
Owensboro around 130 p.m...

The National Weather Service continues Severe Thunderstorm Warnings for the entire swath of the line for the possibilty of damaging winds in excess of 60 mph, and a Severe Thunderstorm Watch remains in effect until 5 p.m. for portions of western Kentucky generally east of the line of storms.

Thunderstorm Update

2009-06-16T11:50:00.002-05:00

At 11:51 a.m., radar indicated a line of severe thunderstorms from near Fulton, to near Paducah...moving east at 50 mph. Wind damage consistent with winds to 60 mph have been reported with this line and gusts to 50 mph were measured at the Paducah airport when this line moved through there.

Hail to the size of pennies, and damaging winds up to 60 mph can be expected with this line. The type of wind damage we have seen today would indicate damage like trees and power lines being blown down, or shingle damage.

Approximate arrival times...
Paducah and Fulton through 1205...
Mayfield just before 1215...
Benton around 1225...
Murray around 1240...
Eddyville around 1245...
Cadiz around 100...

Update on the Approaching Line

2009-06-16T11:15:00.002-05:00

The line of thunderstorms has intensified markedly over the past 15 minutes.

At 11:16 radar indicated a line of severe thunderstorms from near New Madrid, MO to 20 miles northwest of Metropolis. This line will be capable of damaging winds to 60 mph and quarter to half dollar size hail. This line is still moving east at around 50 mph.

Wickliffe and Hickman around 1130 am...
Paducah and Fulton around 1200 pm...
Mayfield around 1215...
Benton and Murray around 1245...

Line Of Storms Approaching

2009-06-16T10:51:00.002-05:00

Note: Apologies for the poor radar resolution Paducah NWS is having communications problems thus I'm using the St. Louis radar turned up high enough to see the storms over southeast Missouri.

At 11:00 a.m, radar indicated thunderstorms from near Jonesboro, Illinois to 7 miles west of New Madrid, Missouri, or from about 40 miles west of Paducah, to about 45 miles west of Fulton. This line was moving east at around 50 mph.

This line of thunderstorms so far this morning has produced wind gusts up to about 45 mph, very heavy rain, small hail and frequent lightning. It has been getting better organized over the last hour and that trend will likely continue as it moves into western Kentucky. At very least, gusty winds to 50 mph, hail up to one half inch in diameter, frequent lightning, and very heavy rain can be expected with the passage of this line. However, it is somewhat likely that damaging winds up to and over 60 mph and large hail may begin to develop with this line as it moves west to east across western Kentucky.

Approximate times of arrival...

Wickliffe and Hickman around 1130 am...
Paducah and Fulton around 1200 pm...
Mayfield around 1215...
Benton and Murray around 1245...

Threat for Thunderstorms This Afternoon.

2009-06-15T13:54:00.003-05:00

Thunderstorms are developing along and south of a warm frontal boundary situated from northwest to southeast across western Kentucky this afternoon. The largest cluster of thunderstorms that have developed so far is over northeastern Arkansas and southeastern Missouri, where longer duration of full sun this afternoon has led to greater instability. A few storms that have developed over northwest Tennessee and western Kentucky have briefly become strong to severe, but have not produced severe weather as consistently as the storms to our west.

As the sun comes out this afternoon behind the frontal boundary temperatures should rise and give way to greater atmospheric instability. In the next few hours as the weak upper level disturbance responsible for helping to set off these storms push closer a severe thunderstorm or two across western Kentucky and middle Tennessee appears rather probable.

The main threat so far this afternoon has been large hail, with a few storms coming close to producing damaging winds, and a few briefly becoming capable of isolated tornadoes. That same general theme will likely hold through the afternoon with a few wind damage reports, possibly a brief tornado or two, and several reports of large hail.

Major Storm System Aiming For Memphis

2009-06-12T16:18:00.002-05:00

I don't usually talk much about the weather down in Memphis but this event may turn out to be quite a big deal. A major complex of severe thunderstorms has been wreaking havoc across Arkansas today and is now taking aim at the Memphis area. The worst of it will likely scrape the southern portions of the greater Memphis area, but the entire area stands to see some wind damage. Wind gusts in the 70 to 80 mph range will be possible in the strongest portion of this line.

Thunderstorm Update

2009-06-11T19:51:00.003-05:00

At 7:51 p.m. thunderstorms stretched from near New Madrid, MO to near Bowling Green, KY moving east southeast at about 35 mph. The line itself is moving slowly southward.

The strongest storm appears to be in central Marshall County, this storm appears capable of producing hail and winds up to 60 mph. It is rapidly approaching severe limits and will likely exceed them in the next few minutes as it approaches Benton.

The line is expected to hold together for the next couple of hours and a new Tornado Watch will likely be issued shortly for portions of middle Tennessee.

Flooding will be a significant threat with this line of storms as they are largely training over the same areas for extended periods of times. While the threat for flooding is relatively localized, areas that do experience flooding may be heavily impacted.

The line will approach Murray between 8:30 and 9:00 p.m. and shift south of the KY/TN border just after that moving into places like Clarksville and Springfield around 9 to 9:30 p.m.

Short Term Update

2009-06-11T10:51:00.002-05:00

Stormy weather will likely continue to some degree as we head into the afternoon. Mesoscale Analysis and upper air analysis indicate that a secondary upper air disturbance is moving through southeast Missouri. The sun has been out for while over northwest Tennessee and western Kentucky, and as soon as the cluster of storms moving through middle Tennessee clear out we will get the sun back out there. This will help re-destabilize the airmass over the region and give us a good chance of additional thunderstorms. Due to the slightly better shear values today, and increasing instability, coupled with cooler air aloft with the passage of this upper wave, will likely help a few storms reach severe limits. Especially later this afternoon.

Quick Radar Grabs

2009-06-11T10:23:00.001-05:00

From 10:22 a.m.

Short Term Update

2009-06-11T10:15:00.002-05:00

At 10:15 a.m. a line of severe thunderstorms was located from 4 miles east of Manchester to just south of Lebannon. There have been several reports of downed trees and other wind damage indicating winds around 50-60 mph along the path of this line of storms.

Other reports of wind damage have been recieved with the storms in Montgomery and Robertson Counties. There is some rotation associated with this storm but it appears at least for the short term the main threat is isolated damaging winds. There are two areas of stronger storms, one located just southwest of Springfield, moving northeast at 45 mph, the other near Orlinda also moving northeast at 35 mph. Northeastern Roberston county remains in the path of these storms through 10:40 a.m.

Short Term Update

2009-06-11T09:37:00.002-05:00

At 9:38 a.m. a line of strong to severe thunderstorms were located from near Ashland City to just southwest of Murfreesboro to near Lynchburg, moving northeast at 35 mph.

Extremely frequent and deadly cloud to ground lightning is occuring with this storm. In addition to the threat of deadly lightning, very heavy rain, hail to up to nickel size and damaging winds to 60 mph may occur with these storms.

Severe Thunderstorm Warnings remain in effect for much of the Nashville metro area this morning.

Thunderstorm Forecast Update

2009-06-10T21:21:00.002-05:00

As the event continues to unfold it appears that the threat of significant severe weather is lowering for western Kentucky. Data indicates that as the air continues to cool we are becoming slightly less unstable, and may be developing just a bit of a cap on convection as the night time inversion sets in. This should serve to limit any thunderstorms to closer to the main upper wave, which is whats causing the storms over Arkansas and near St. Louis.

We also seem to be generally lacking shear tonight, which was expected, and the decrease in surface based instability seems to be teaming up for an overall lower threat. The main area of upper level divergence, and best frontal forcing is also occuring up around St. Louis (thus all the lift and thunderstorms going on there) That area will move into southern Illinois as the night progresses, flooding rains and strong to severe storms will likely be the rule through 3 a.m. in that region.

The threat for severe weather in some extent, such as isolated reports of large hail and a few accounts of damaging wind though is still somewhat high for western Kentucky, but at this time the threat for widespread severe weather appears relatively low. There is some threat for flooding in areas where thunderstorms train over the same area, but that threat appears higher in southern Illinois.

Forecast Update

2009-06-10T17:36:00.002-05:00

Thunderstorms are developing across far southwestern Missouri and northeast Oklahoma ahead of an upper level disturbance projected to continue moving eastward through the evening and overnight tonight. Surface based instability is very strong throughout most of southern Missouri and northern Arkansas and that continues to some degree in northwest Tennessee and western Kentucky. I expect that the thunderstorms to our west will likely coalesce into a line as the afternoon and evening progresses and move eastward at something close to the estimated times I provided with the black lines.

The main question at this point appears to be what amount of instability will be left across western Kentucky and Tennessee by the time the line would have a chance to approach. With the line likely not moving through til close to 2 to 3 a.m. the general idea is that surface based instability would be limited to the point that we will not see a major severe weather episode. Shear is not particularly outstanding either so this looks like mainly an instability driven event, and once that reduces in the overnight the severe weather threat will likely diminish.

I'll admit this event has been particularly difficult to forecast for a variety of reasons and I still feel that at least some level of weather awareness is important tonight because with the oustanding thermodynamic instability present I can't rule out a bit of an overachieving event with a few surprises. I'll update this again later this evening as the event nears.

Threat for Severe Weather Wednesday

2009-06-09T23:24:00.002-05:00

The hot, sticky airmass that has entrenched itself over western Kentucky and middle Tennessee will likely prove to be a breeding ground for thunderstorms tomorrow, especially in the afternoon hours.

An upper level disturbance that led to severe thunderstorms across Missouri tonight is slowly sliding east with time and will begin impacting the weather in this region tomorrow. The upper level disturbance will help provide extra lift near the surface and provide a focusing mechanism for thunderstorm development. The storms will likely start rather isolated and increase in coverage as the afternoon progresses. There is also a relatively high likelihood that during the afternoon or evening the storms will become more organized into a line of storms that may carry a reasonably substantial wind damage threat.

The tornado threat is not particularly high, but it isn't zero either. Tornadoes appear most likely in the late afternoon, although at this point it does not appear to be the strongest threat. Damaging winds and large hail look to be the main threat with any storms that do become severe.

The forecast picture is gummed up by the thunderstorms ongoing across northwest Tennessee and northern Arkansas so check back for updates, but at least for now it looks like its worth paying some attention to the weather tomorrow.

Thunderstorms Possible Today/Tonight

2009-06-09T14:37:00.003-05:00

A cluster of strong to severe thunderstorms has developed over central and southern Missouri this afternoon. Upper air data and short term computer models indicate that conditions may become more favorable for storms to begin building to the southeast ahead of this system, into portions of western Kentucky through about 5 p.m. Today's heat and humidity, coupled with cooler temperatures aloft have led to a very unstable airmass so any storms that do develop will likely be strong to severe.

Thunderstorm activity may briefly diminish shortly after sunset, but another round of thunderstorms will be possible once the larger upper level disturbance approaches overnight tonight.

Isolated tornadoes, damaging winds and large hail will be the main threats with any storms that do become severe. The best chance for tornadoes and hail will be between 5 and 8 p.m. tonight, a more organized damaging wind threat may take shape in the overnight hours.

Scattered Thunderstorms Today

2009-06-03T15:48:00.003-05:00

Scattered showers and thunderstorms are developing this afternoon across portions of western and south central Kentucky and middle Tennessee. These storms are moving northeast at 35-40 mph. Warmer temperatures aloft seem to be keeping most of these storms below severe limits so far, but a few storms may reach severe limits before 6 p.m. tonight, especially across south central Kentucky, where a Severe Thunderstorm Watch remains in place until 8 p.m.

Most areas will experience brief heavy rains, small hail, and gusty winds to 40 mph, deadly cloud to ground lightning will also accompany any storms that do develop. Through 5 p.m. the heaviest activity is expected to be in and around the Paducah, and Hopkinsville areas.

Sunny Summer-like Day

2009-05-21T15:14:00.002-05:00

Each day this week has been about 1 to 2 degrees warmer with just a slight increase in cloud coverage and humidity. We're comfortably in the mid 80s today and the dewpoints are creeping into the 50s. We started the week with temperatures in the lower 70s and dewpoints in the 30s. So quite a bit warmer today and more humid than it was yesterday with today really being the first day that could be categorized as hot.

The large upper level disturbance over Florida is continuing to dump heavy rains on that part of the country while it slowly continues is projected northwestward creep. The key for us is its brining with it two things, an increase in low level moisture with the more tropical airmass, and lift. The satellite image above gives us a look at whats going on at levels that are roughly between 25,000 and 40,000 feet. It measures the content of the water vapor at that height, and if water is that high up it had to be lifted up there, lifting is what helps produce clouds and precip, so it's pretty evident that western Kentucky and middle Tennessee are in a precip/cloud free zone, but change is on the way with the airmass associated with the upper level disturbance set to move overhead tomorrow.

Expected weather tomorrow should include temperatures in the mid 80s, about like today, but the dewpoint should continue its forward march into the low to mid 60s, so it will be much more sticky. I believe with the increase in moisture and lift that we will start to see isolated, to perhaps scattered thunderstorms developing, especially across middle Tennessee by 3-4 in the afternoon. Wont be a washout type day but there will probably be a few folks get wet.

Saturday should be very similar but with more clouds hang out throughout the day and a broader coverage of showers and thunderstorms. Highs will probalby still be in the mid 80s with dewpoints in the mid 60s. The best rain chances will stick to the later afternoon.

Sunday and Monday we will continue to bump the rain chances up, peaking probably on Monday where the core of this disturbance will pass close enough by that we may see scattered showers even in the morning. The general soupy airmass looks like it will try to stick around through Wednesday or Thursday so expect relatively clear mornings but clouds, showers and thunderstorms returning with daytime heat in the afternoon.

Another Excellent Day

2009-05-20T13:08:00.003-05:00

The weather is again beautiful today across western Kentucky and middle Tennessee. A few widely scattered cumulus clouds are all that prevent another completely cloud free day across the region. Temperatures are running in the mid 70s across most of the area and may flirt with 80 before the day is over. Tomorrow looks to be much the same with a few more clouds and temperatures in the lower 80s in most places. There may be a few instances of mid 80s in the Nashville metro area.

Our weather pattern should hold firm through tomorrow and most of Friday, but there is a rather robust upper level disturbance spinning over Florida. Most of the models now agree on a broad consensus of bringing the storm system northwest into the north central Gulf coast region and slowly weakening as it pushes north into Alabama and Mississippi.

The net effect of this system will likely be a steady increase in our low level moisture. This will increase our relative humidity, cloud cover and rain chances as the weekend approaches. While the weekend doesn't look to be a washout it looks like small rain chances will begin as early as late Friday night, increasing into the afternoon Saturday and peaking on Sunday and Monday. The best rain chances look like they will come in the form of afternoon thunderstorms that build in the warm and more humid airmass. Temperatures will likely hold reasonably close to 80 for highs and overnight lows will increase into the low to mid 60s by Friday.

Making Up For All The Unpleasant Weather This Winter

2009-05-19T13:09:00.004-05:00

Today ought to go a long way towards rebuilding everyone's psyche following the cloudy, cold, windy winter and spring we have had so far. Temperatures are all registering in the lower to mid 70s across all of western Kentucky and middle Tennessee. There isn't any sign of a cloud for miles with our weather pattern totally under the influence of strong upper ridging which at the surface is building from east to west across the Ohio Valley.

Our next chance at precipitation will hold off until the weekend. A storm system off of Florida (as can be partially seen in the satellite picture) will move westward with time into the Gulf of Mexico and then north into the upper Gulf Coast region by Friday. It's expected to move northward and it should be close enough by Saturday that we will probably see cloudier skies and have a chance of rain which may persist through Sunday.

Now This Is a Little More Like It

2009-05-18T12:11:00.002-05:00

I believe the only argument about this weather could be its a little cool. I don't think anyone is complaining though. At the lunch hour were around 65 through western Kentucky and Middle Tennessee. A large upper ridge has moved in over the central U.S. and surface high pressure stretches from the mid Mississippi Valley into the upper Ohio Valley, and it looks like it will be sticking around for a while.

The upper ridge is quite strong and it will take a pretty good sized system to help "kick" it east of here. Our weather pattern should generally remain very similar for the next few days. We should be dry with each day being slightly warmer, and possibly featuring a few more clouds. By Saturday an upper level low that had been floating around Florida slides just northwest enough to begin to give us a small chance at mainly afternoon thundershowers Saturday and Sunday. Should be a very summer like pattern, but slightly cooler and less humid. That'll work.

Rain Over? Doesn't Look Like It

2009-05-14T17:22:00.002-05:00

The frontal boundary that led to the showers and thunderstorms this morning hasn't quite made it all the way through the region. The boundary is quite a bit weaker than it was yesterday but looks to sharpen up a bit tomorrow in advance of the next storm system and begin an advance northward. There will be a small chance for showers tomorrow as the system moves northward and a much better chance for rain Saturday, especially in the afternoon.

Although it seems like we are floating away, and are a lakes and rivers are trying to make us do just that, we actually remain just below normal for 2009 for precipitation at the Barkley Airport. As of today they have recieved 17.1 inches of rain, while the normal is 18.8 for this time of year. This month however we are almost an inch above normal. Our river and lake flooding comes from middle Tennessee however where both Nashville and Clarksville are between 3 and 4 inches above normal for the month, and 2 inches above normal for the year. It does look though like a major pattern shift will occur into next week with a strong upper ridge moving in after the weekend and setting up shop through the end of the work week. For now the entire week looks dry and warm.

Evening Update

2009-05-13T23:51:00.002-05:00

Summary:
A very well organized line of strong to severe thunderstorms continues to move east at around 50 mph tonight ahead of a cold frontal boundary draped across the upper Mississippi Valley tonight. Through the overnight hours this activity is expected to continue this eastward movement and will likely move through western Kentucky in the early morning hours Thursday.

Observational and model data indicate that the airmass ahead of this line of storms remains quite unstable, and will likely remain at least somewhat so through the overnight hours. Showers and thunderstorms are also developing along a line just ahead of the main complex over southeastern Missouri. Thunderstorms along this line remain poorly organized and will likely not produce periods of sustained severe weather.

The best chance for rain and thunderstorms will be between 6 a.m. and noon across western Kentucky. There is a reasonable threat of severe weather, mainly in the form of damaging winds and very large hail.

Discussion:
Sfc observations continue to indicate sfc Tds in the mid to upper 60s across the region with strong south winds continuing to advect moisture into the region. Tds across TN/MS flirt with the 70 degree mark. With sfc temps in the low to mid 70s and strong WAA we likely are quite close to the minimum temperature for the evening. Lapse rates continue to steepen ahead of the approaching trough and SBCAPE values look to be maintaining in the 1000-1500 j/kg range. Low level shear values remain quite high with RUC modeling of 850 mb winds in the 50-55kt range. NAM projections support this but show the bulk of the low level jet advancing northeast ward as height field relax as the upper trough and associated cyclone prograde into the Great Lakes region by 18z. Taking the model timing literally it would seem to indicate a slight decrease of available shear as the morning progresses. However, net thermodynamic instability should increase with daytime heating.

NAM (which is model of choice for its horizontal and spatial resolution) tries to stall the front as it approaches the area parking it just south of the KY/TN border from west to east by the afternoon. Current behavior of the system and the positioning of the upper air features associated with it lend credibility to the solution. Believe however that the bulk of the front will clear the region by 19-20z and stay just south for the day. Middle TN will likely have an active wx day as the boundary should begin moving into the area as low-level CAPE values maximize around noon. Lapse rates and shear not quite as impressive in this region based on NAM projections and interpretation of upper air observations from 00z but there does appear to be a window for some storms to become severe in the afternoon across Middle Tennessee.

Additionally:
Getting reports tonight from Kirksville, MO of a destructive tornado that killed at least one woman. The preliminary storm reports lend themselves to what may have been a 30-40 mile long track tornado. I haven't seen a lot of photos from the area, nor particularly good radar images due to the storms remote location but it appears the storm was quite intense.

Thunderstorm Forecast Update

2009-05-13T18:40:00.003-05:00

Thunderstorms have initiated this afternoon across portions of Kansas and Missouri and are moving eastward at around 45 mph. Thunderstorms over southern Illinois continue to develop but remain largely below severe limits. While the airmass in place over western Kentucky remains very unstable there is a lack of convergence along a trough over northeastern Arkansas and southeast Missouri to allow for thunderstorms to develop. While there is a small chance that storms will initiate early this evening in southeast Missouri. The best chance for thunderstorms now appears to be in the early morning hours as a cold frontal boundary approaches from the west. This boundary is the one responsible for the activity over Missouri and Kansas this afternoon.

Updates will be posted later this evening.

Thunderstorms Today

2009-05-13T11:41:00.004-05:00

Summary: I expect thunderstorms will fire in central Missouri this afternoon and move through somewhere around 7 p.m. If we get storms during this time, they almost certainly will be severe. Theres at least a bit of conditionality on these storms developing.

The best forcing and more "sure fire" thunderstorm chance is going to be in the early morning hours Thursday, although the chance that this line will be severe considering the time of day it is going to be moving through is a little more in question.

It would be reasonable to expect a tornado watch today and possibly an upgrade to moderate risk as the afternoon progresses.

Discussion:
There is a good chance of showers and thunderstorms late this afternoon and into tonight as a storm system approaches from the west. Some of these storms may become severe with damaging winds, large hail, and isolated tornadoes.

Afternoon heating, and an increase in low level moisture from strong south winds are expected to lead to an increasingly unstable airmass as the afternoon progresses. Visible satellite imagery indicates that a thin layer of clouds that had persisted this morning will likely move to the east as we move through the afternoon allowing for further heating. Afternoon highs in the mid to upper 70s with dewpoints moving into the mid to upper 60s will yield MLCAPE values in the 2000 j/kg bracket by peak heating. WV and upper air analysis indicate a strongly difluent region over southwestern Missouri ahead of a short wave trough approaching from the west. This area is expected to move towards southeast Missouri and western Kentucky as we move into early evening. Visible satellite confirms the telltale swirl of yet another Mesoscale Convective Vortex over southwestern Missouri. Linear extrapolation brings that feature into the region by early evening. With that there seems to be a strong argument for convective initiation across southcentral Missouri later this afternoon tracking eastward into western Kentucky in the 7 p.m. bracket. Given the shear and thermodynamic parameters damaging winds and very large hail are the main threat but tornadoes cannot be ruled out.

As the main upper trough approach a secondary thunderstorm/rain chance peak will center around 8 a.m. Forecast guidance continues to indicate sufficient theromdynamic and shear profiles supportive of severe weather with damaging winds and large hail the main threats. Although it should be noted that should a large scale convective complex move through the region the thermodynamic profile, especially with it moving through overnight, could be altered sufficiently to make the current guidance projections highly inaccurate.

Surprise!

2009-04-10T09:24:00.003-05:00

The National Weather Service has issued a Tornado Watch until 4 p.m. for Western Kentucky. Sun ahead of the advancing cold front has re-destabilized the airmass and a line of thunderstorms have developed along a line from Cairo to Memphis. Hail will be possible with virtually all thunderstorms today and stronger storms will be capable of damaging winds and very large hail. Isolated tornadoes will also remain possible and we are watching some more discrete thunderstorms just ahead of the boundary that would likely carry a higher tornado threat.

More in a bit!

Weather Update

2009-04-10T03:00:00.002-05:00

At 3:00 a.m. radar and surface observations indicated that the thunderstorms over Christian County have weakened considerably. Strong thunderstorms capable of producing dime sized hail and brief gusty winds to 40 mph will be possible in Todd County and Muhlenberg County through 3:30 a.m.

Thunderstorm Update

2009-04-10T02:35:00.002-05:00

At 2:35 a.m. radar continued to indicate a line of severe thunderstorms capable of producing damaging winds to 60 mph. The line of storms was located from near Dover to just south of Madisonville...moving east at 45 mph. Most areas will likely experience winds of 40-50 mph with isolated pockets, especially across central Christian County recieving localized wind gusts to 60 mph.

The line will move through Hopkinsville between 2:45 and 3:00 a.m.

Severe Thunderstorm Update

2009-04-10T02:05:00.001-05:00

At 2:06 a.m. radar continued to indicate a line of severe thunderstorms capable of damaging winds to 60 mph. This line was located from 6 miles northwest of Cadiz...to near Fredonia...moving east at 60 mph.

The line will move through Princeton and Cadiz over the next 20 minutes.

Severe Thunderstorm Update

2009-04-10T01:27:00.002-05:00

At 1:30 a.m. radar continued to indicate a line of severe thunderstorms from 15 miles west of Murray to 12 miles north of Smithland...moving east at 55 mph.

Damaging winds have been reported with this storm. Winds to 60 mph will remain possible as the storm moves through Smithland by 1:45...Benton by 1:45 and Murray around 2:00 a.m.

Severe Thunderstorm Update

2009-04-10T01:00:00.002-05:00

At 1:00 a.m. radar indicates a line of severe thunderstorms from 10 miles west of Fulton...to 10 miles northwest of Metropolis...moving east at 55 mph. Radar indicates isolated pockets of damaging winds up to 70 m.p.h with this line. Most areas will experience winds up to 60 mph.

The storms will be near
Paducah by 1:15...
Mayfield by 1:30...
Murray and Benton around 2:00...

Severe Thunderstorm Update

2009-04-10T00:36:00.003-05:00

At 12:36 a.m., radar indicated a line of severe thunderstorms from 10 miles west of Hickman, to just east of Cape Girardeau, Missouri. These storms were moving east at 50 mph.

Hail to the size of pennies and damaging winds over 60 mph have been reported with this line of storms over the last hour as they moved through southeast Missouri.

The thread for damaging winds and large hail will persist with this line as it moves east into western Kentucky.

The line will be near...
Wickliffe by 1:00 a.m.
Fulton by 1:15 a.m.
Paducah and Mayfield around 1:30 a.m.
Murray and Benton around 2:00 a.m.

In addition to the severe weather threat, frequent lightning and very heavy rain can be expected as the line moves through.

Thunderstorms Thursday Night

2009-04-08T21:20:00.002-05:00

Organized thunderstorms will be possible Thursday night ahead of a developing storm system from the west. Clouds will likely begin building in the late afternoon and isolated to scattered showers will become possible around sunset. Better chances for rain begin towards 10 p.m. and lasting through the early morning hours Friday.

There is a slight risk for severe thunderstorms with this system. The most likely time for severe weather is between 12 a.m. and 6 a.m. Friday. A threat of tornadoes, damaging winds, and large hail all appear possible at this point. Check back for updates as the event nears.

Thunderstorm Update

2009-04-02T16:42:00.002-05:00

At 4:42 radar indicates that most of the thunderstorms that had affected portions of western Kentucky have moved northeast into northwest Kentucky. Rain will persist off and on through the early evening. There also have been several reports of cloud to ground lightning with this system well after the inital line of storms pass, so remain aware of the potential for lightning and never venture outside less than 30 minutes after the last rumble of thunder.

Thunderstorm Update

2009-04-02T16:12:00.002-05:00

At 4:17 radar continued to indicate a severe thunderstorm capable of damaging winds to 65 mph. This storm was located just southwest of Earlington, and moving northeast at 45 mph. This storm will affect Morton's Gap, Earlington, and Madisonville over the next 20 minutes.

Thunderstorm Update

2009-04-02T16:01:00.003-05:00

At 4:03 radar indicated a line of thunderstorms that may be producing particuarly damaging winds. These storms were located just southwest of Dawson Springs and moving northeast at 40 mph. Damaging winds up to 70 mph may be possible with these storms over the next 10 minutes as they near Dawson Springs and cross the Western Kentucky Parkway.

Radar also indicates the possibility of a tornado just north of Greenville, or about near Powderly moving north at 35 mph.