Things Quiet On The Home Front...Getting Busier In The Tropics

Were getting into a very typical Tennessee Valley summertime pattern as we hit the halfway mark through August. Hot, humid days with scattered showers and thunderstorms will be the rule for the next few days. No significant deviation really looks to come into play for the next few days.

In the tropics though there are a few items of note:


The area labeled "1" is an area of disturbed weather ahead of an upper level trough over the central Gulf of Mexico. The area is poorly organized and theres quite a bit of upper shear in this region. Widespread showers and thunderstorms should persist for the next few days on the western Florida coastline and its slightly possible, although somewhat unlikely that this area will increase in coverage and intensity and develop into a weak tropical cylcone.

The area labeled "2" is a cut off upper level low pressure system which is sliding westward towards the Bahamas. This area is not of a "tropical cylcone" type nature, and in fact is exactly the opposite, where tropical cylcones rotate counter clockwise at the surface, they rotate clockwise aloft, this storm is rotating counter clockwise throughout the entire atmosphere. The area is significant because it and the the other tropical upper tropospheric trough to the east will aid in eroding a weakness in the subtropical ridge, which will be the primary steering force behind our next two systems.

"Ana" was upgraded last night to tropical storm status, but looks frankly, miserable tonight. A CIMSS shear analysis indicates up to 20 knots of westerly shear with stronger shear just ahead of it. Microwave satellite imagery indicates an area of weak convection near the center which is helping the storm hold its identity, but conventional satellite imagery in the area seems to indicate it is moving into an area of drier air, and thus less buyoancy. Most of the available model guidance maintain Anas identity and bring it into Puerto Rico and the greater antillies islands over the next 48 hours. Personally, it seems that based on her appearance tonight, Ana may have a tough time surviving the impending dry air and extensive shear, which will likely not dramatically let up in the next few days. Either way the storm may end up bringing enhanced rainfall to Cuba, Hispanola, and Puerto Rico and neighboring islands.

"Bill" is the current wildcard of the bunch. Conventional and microwave satellite imagery indicate that the storm is slowly organizing and strengthening. Essentially all available computer guidance bring Bill to hurricane intensity by 5 days from now where the storm is poised to be a few hundred miles northeast of the U.S. Virgin Islands. From there most guidance curves the storm northward into the open Atlantic. From the analysis presented tonight and the current pattern, it seems this is the most likely solution. The only wildcard for now seems to be exactly "When" that recurvature will occur. A few more dependable track models curve it northward close enough to Florida to cause a few nervous moments for residents and emergency personnel there. At this point though, too early tell what the storm will do, and I wouldn't be tremendously surprised (although I don't care to quarrel with every major computer model on the planet too much) if the shear was stronger than currently forecast and the storm had a more difficult time reaching hurricane intensity than is currently projected, but I guess we shall see!