Bill Posing A Threat...

Hurricane Bill is still a very formidable category four storm this afternoon with maximum sustained winds per the latest recon flight around 135 mph. Examining the near-storm environment shows relatively favorable conditions, albeit some shear. The environment around the storm should essentially remain unchanged for the next 36 hours or so, so minus a few eyewall replacement cycles I'd think the storm will maintain category four intensity through that time period.

The storm may then begin to interact somewhat with an area of enhanced shear from an upper level low located about 1000 miles to its northeast this afternoon. This may work to weaken Bill somewhat as it passes between Bermuda and the United States.

There has been a notable shift westward this afternoon in track guidance with Bill and while its not responsible to make too much of little shifts in guidance. It is reaffirming some concern in my mind that Bill will pass close enough to provide some level of threat to portions of Connecticut, Rhode Island, Massachusetts and Maine. The track guidance has been fairly consistent in indicating a significant threat to Nova Scotia and Newfoundland.

The cone that the storm would most likely pass remains largely unchanged this afternoon with the highest threat a few hundred miles east of Rhode Island, extending to about 500 miles east, and then to the west towards the actual coast of the northeastern United States.

It's still just a bit too early to really begin getting concerned about direct impact, and the highest probabilities still remain offshore, but those in Nova Scotia and Newfoundland would not be wasting their time to begin preparing for hurricane conditions on Monday. If I were in Conneticut, Rhode Island, eastern Massachussets and Maine, I believe I would be making a trip to gather materials necessary for a possible impact from this storm, things such as non-perishable foods, batteries, flashlights, first aid kits, and other items necessary to survived a prolonged power outage, and possible wind damage. The most likely time for impact, if impact were to occur is Sunday morning into Sunday.

Again, the storm most likely will pass east, but the threat to portions of the northeast appears significant enough to begin taking action. By this time tomorrow we should have a clearer picture of where Bill is headed.